← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 39% | 43% | 2.53 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| Swansea win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Chris Brunt · West Brom |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Swansea |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · Swansea |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 6.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1425.75 | 1520.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.26 | 5.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.65 | 28.29 |
| state index | -1.33 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 165.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |