← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 42% | 45% | 2.33 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Burnley win | 28% | 24% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Georges-Kévin N'Koudou · Burnley |
| 56' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 61' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 96.00 |
| 2014.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1499.72 | 1566.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.80 | 26.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 37.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.03 | 27.99 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 267.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |