← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 75% | 79% | 1.30 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 16% | 10% | 6.15 | fair |
| Stoke win | 9% | 10% | 11.30 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Stoke |
| 52' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 63' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Glen Johnson · Stoke |
| 79' | 🟨 | Serge Aurier · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Badou Ndiaye · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 96.00 | 1376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1473.75 | 1836.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.95 | 36.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.42 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| league points | 27.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.40 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.28 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 26.49 |
| state index | -0.90 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 210.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |