← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 53% | 62% | 1.86 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.72 | fair |
| Man United win | 21% | 16% | 4.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 30' | ⚽ | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 53' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 55' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 63' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 69' | ⚽ | Chris Smalling · Man United |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 81' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 645.00 | 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.62 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| elo | 2086.29 | 1985.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.06 | 9.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 84.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.78 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 27.99 |
| state index | 2.59 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.99 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 6.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |