← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 53% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.58 | value: +4% |
| Newcastle win | 20% | 20% | 4.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 21' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dwight Gayle · Newcastle |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 188.00 | 767.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.25 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1616.40 | 1520.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.05 | 38.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.13 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 263.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |