← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 56% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.70 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 18% | 21% | 5.46 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Jonas Lössl · Brighton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Huddersfield |
| 58' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟥 | Davy Pröpper · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1223.00 | 888.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1503.11 | 1461.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.68 | -15.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.30 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| league points | 34.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 27.19 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 330.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |