← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 43% | 34% | 2.30 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 41% | 3.43 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 639.00 | 1370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1755.78 | 1822.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.05 | 22.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| league points | 56.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 21.96 | 20.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 26.68 |
| state index | 0.57 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 16.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |