← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 36% | 33% | 2.71 | fair |
| West Ham win | 34% | 39% | 2.91 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | João Mário · West Ham |
| 17' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Southampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 150.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1496.26 | 1509.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.36 | -13.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 20.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.43 | 25.55 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 120.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |