← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 37% | 41% | 2.62 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +8% |
| Burnley win | 31% | 24% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 73' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 83' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Pope · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 150.00 | 2007.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1433.91 | 1558.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.33 | 24.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 20.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 20.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.66 | 28.22 |
| state index | -1.30 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 143.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |