← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andy Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 44% | 59% | 2.22 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 28% | 18% | 3.48 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 42' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 49' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 78' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 89.00 | 2007.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1500.16 | 1544.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.40 | -22.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.18 | 25.14 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 142.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |