← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.63 | value: +17% |
| Huddersfield win | 18% | 15% | 5.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 8' | 🟨 | Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Huddersfield |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Collin Quaner · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 760.00 | 881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1512.91 | 1468.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.84 | 11.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.82 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 147.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |