← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 80% | 72% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 23% | 6.95 | value: +58% |
| Swansea win | 6% | 5% | 16.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 20' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 699.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| 0.80 |
| -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1807.00 | 1524.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.44 | 13.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 65.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 20.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 28.30 |
| state index | 1.22 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |