← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 65% | 68% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.70 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 14% | 16% | 7.00 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Loris Karius · Liverpool |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 38' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 211.00 | 373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1521.75 | 1786.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.31 | 13.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 30.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 25.93 |
| state index | -0.20 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |