← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 54% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 38% | 3.84 | value: +45% |
| West Brom win | 20% | 14% | 4.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jordon Ibe · Bournemouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 89' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1993.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1728.73 | 1629.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.29 | -48.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 28.40 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 197.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |