← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 68% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 13% | 14% | 7.75 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 18' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Tottenham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 62' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 87' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Serge Aurier · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1987.00 |
| 1349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1547.39 | 1814.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.29 | 27.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 26.07 |
| state index | 0.15 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |