← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 64% | 57% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 34% | 4.55 | value: +53% |
| Watford win | 14% | 9% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 55' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 66' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 7832.00 |
| 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1703.02 | 1511.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.88 | 36.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 28.93 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.29 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |