← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 44% | 38% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.16 | value: +10% |
| Burnley win | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 54' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 70' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aaron Lennon · Burnley |
| 81' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 129.00 |
| 1986.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1515.57 | 1539.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.13 | 5.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 28.20 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |