← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 43% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +4% |
| West Brom win | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 53' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Leicester |
| 62' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vicente Iborra · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 129.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1453.38 | 1588.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.13 | -26.27 |
| eye test v1 | -1.40 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.24 | 27.59 |
| state index | -1.14 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 56.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |