← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 37% | 34% | 2.63 | fair |
| Southampton win | 32% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.20 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Kenedy · Newcastle |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kenedy · Newcastle |
| 48' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Southampton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 739.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1497.02 | 1524.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.83 | -1.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 25.78 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 452.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |