← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 39% | 33% | 2.49 | fair |
| Man United win | 31% | 38% | 3.20 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 24' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Eric Bailly · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 13 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 678.00 |
| 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1798.96 | 1789.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.22 | 22.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 72.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 62.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 25.40 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 44.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |