← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 38% | 40% | 2.57 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 42% | 3.04 | value: +27% |
| Swansea win | 30% | 18% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟥 | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
| 50' | 🟨 | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 63' | 🟨 | André Ayew · Swansea |
| 70' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Collin Quaner · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 0 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 860.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1634.82 | 1715.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.63 | 35.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.86 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 28.26 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 267.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |