← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 76% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.85 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 8% | 10% | 13.00 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Martin Kelly · Chelsea |
| 59' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 86' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 86' | 🟨 | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 617.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1752.83 | 1507.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -67.89 | -20.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 53.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.72 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |