← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 67% | 64% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.70 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 12% | 18% | 7.85 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 42' | 🟨 | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 48' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Chris Smalling · Man United |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 185.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1512.31 | 1794.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.44 | -15.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 26.97 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |