← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 65% | 52% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 40% | 4.85 | value: +92% ⚠ |
| Chelsea win | 15% | 8% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Oleksandr Zinchenko · Man City |
| 46' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 47' | 🟨 | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
| 57' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 611.00 | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.65 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1882.31 | 1757.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.82 | -56.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.91 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 75.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.68 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.49 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 26.55 |
| state index | 1.94 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 260.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |