← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 50% | 43% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
| Brighton win | 23% | 37% | 4.25 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 26' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jack Wilshere · Arsenal |
| 43' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 54' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Schelotto · Brighton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1189.00 | 7825.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1514.57 | 1698.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.37 | -12.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.80 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 77.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |