← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 41% | 49% | 2.41 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
| West Brom win | 29% | 23% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 61.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1699.11 | 1650.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.57 | -27.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 29.56 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 143.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |