← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 83% | 79% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.75 | value: +7% |
| Huddersfield win | 4% | 7% | 24.50 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 27' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1341.00 | 853.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1811.05 | 1489.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.55 | 9.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 55.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 26.70 |
| state index | 1.49 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 255.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |