← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 37% | 47% | 2.62 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.09 | fair |
| West Ham win | 31% | 22% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sung-Yueng Ki · Swansea |
| 32' | ⚽ | Mike Van der Hoorn · Swansea |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Andy King · Swansea |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · West Ham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 92.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1508.09 | 1531.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.95 | -12.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 30.19 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 273.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |