← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 81% | 69% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 27% | 7.80 | value: +112% |
| Newcastle win | 6% | 4% | 16.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 345.00 | 732.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| venue | Anfield |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 1.80 |
| -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1786.27 | 1500.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.89 | 20.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 57.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.35 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 192.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |