← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 52% | 61% | 1.90 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 21% | 15% | 4.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adrien Silva · Leicester |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kasper Schmeichel · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 153.00 | 1979.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1591.73 | 1544.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.58 | 16.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| league points | 36.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 25.67 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 215.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |