← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 37% | 46% | 2.62 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.97 | fair |
| Everton win | 30% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Cenk Tosun · Everton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 80' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 86' | 🟥 | Ashley Williams · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1979.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1742.77 | 1743.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.35 | -1.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 62.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |