← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 72% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.60 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 10% | 17% | 9.50 | value: +59% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mousa Dembélé · Tottenham |
| 88' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 177.00 | 1335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1516.50 | 1806.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.34 | 22.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 70.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 26.25 |
| state index | -0.22 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |