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West Brom 1–2 Huddersfield

← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
West Brom win52%70%1.88value: +32% ⚠
Draw28%14%3.44fair
Huddersfield win20%16%5.01fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Florent Hadergjonaj · Huddersfield
48'⚽Rajiv Van La Parra · Huddersfield
56'⚽Steve Mounié · Huddersfield
64'⚽Craig Dawson · West Brom
83'🟨Jonny Evans · West Brom

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots16
3On target7
6Corners3
11Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.570.64
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days
115.00
846.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.182.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.23
dominance (last 5)0.400.40
elo1472.011477.55
elo momentum (last 5)0.25-21.29
eye test v1-0.95-1.41
eye trend v1-0.44-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)53.8051.60
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.60
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.630.64
league points20.0027.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8070.00
possession avg (last 5)39.0043.60
rest days12.0013.00
scorer concentration0.200.28
season ppg0.741.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.007.60
skill v1-1.55-1.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.00
sot for avg (last 3)1.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.00
squad age29.4026.41
state index-0.56-0.71
sterile dominance v1-0.99-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.280.19
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.18
travel km—128.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80