← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 40% | 55% | 2.47 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.24 | fair |
| Everton win | 30% | 20% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Carrillo · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 54.00 |
| 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1493.93 | 1583.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.62 | -0.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 30.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.46 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 263.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |