← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 79% | 86% | 1.24 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.00 | fair |
| West Ham win | 7% | 4% | 14.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 43' | 🟨 | James Collins · West Ham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · West Ham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 57' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 59' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days |
| 338.00 |
| 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1781.11 | 1536.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.03 | 11.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 29.64 |
| state index | 1.20 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 291.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |