← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 58% | 69% | 1.70 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.95 | fair |
| Stoke win | 18% | 13% | 5.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 23' | 🟨 | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 43' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Butland · Leicester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 146.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1596.30 | 1484.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.33 | -1.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 35.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 27.58 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 80.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |