← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 41% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Burnley win | 28% | 32% | 3.49 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 67' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1972.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1531.82 | 1525.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.77 | 5.94 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| league points | 36.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.59 | 26.01 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 325.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |