← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 49% | 57% | 2.01 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.31 | fair |
| Swansea win | 22% | 20% | 4.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Lewis Dunk · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jürgen Locadia · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1181.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1498.83 | 1523.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.00 | 53.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 281.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |