← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.58 | value: +16% |
| Newcastle win | 24% | 16% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Dwight Gayle · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dwight Gayle · Newcastle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
| 80' | ⚽ | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | DeAndre Yedlin · Newcastle |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diamé · Newcastle |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1972.00 | 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1547.46 | 1497.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.98 | 15.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.40 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| league points | 31.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 471.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |