← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 73% | 65% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 28% | 5.30 | value: +47% |
| West Brom win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kieran Gibbs · West Brom |
| 63' | ⚽ | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
| 71' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 591.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1761.46 | 1476.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -59.95 | -2.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| league points | 50.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 30.79 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 166.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |