← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 61% | 49% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.15 | value: +30% |
| Newcastle win | 15% | 20% | 6.35 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Chris Smalling · Man United |
| 65' | ⚽ | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 712.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1700.84 | 1975.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.27 | 7.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.23 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 173.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |