← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 41% | 50% | 2.38 | value: +19% |
| Watford win | 30% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · West Ham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Pablo Zabaleta · West Ham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 101.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1524.74 | 1505.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.57 | 20.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.72 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 31.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |