← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 77% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.70 | value: +29% |
| Leicester win | 6% | 4% | 15.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 71' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 73' | 🟨 | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
| 77' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 89' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 2 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 589.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.25 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1864.59 | 1601.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.12 | 11.52 |
| eye test v1 | 1.56 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 69.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.84 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 27.14 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.84 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |