← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 64% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| Watford win | 14% | 19% | 6.95 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea |
| 30' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea |
| 30' | 🟥 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Watford |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 58' | 🟨 | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 82' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 84' | ⚽ | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 88' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 35.00 | 584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1477.19 | 1789.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.87 | -27.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 1.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 25.94 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 23.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |