← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 35% | 32% | 2.76 | fair |
| West Brom win | 33% | 39% | 2.96 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ahmed Hegazy · West Brom |
| 22' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · West Brom |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mario Lemina · Southampton |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 55' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 94.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1486.92 | 1522.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.14 | -1.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.99 | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 182.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |