← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 72% | 71% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.45 | value: +11% |
| Everton win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 14' | ⚽ | Laurent Koscielny · Arsenal |
| 19' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 24' | 🟨 | Laurent Koscielny · Arsenal |
| 37' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 50' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 64' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7796.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1710.55 | 1582.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.92 | -21.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 42.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 27.85 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.45 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 285.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |