← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 35% | 40% | 2.78 | value: +13% |
| Leicester win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Everton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Everton |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 91.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1573.31 | 1615.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.48 | 9.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 152.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |