← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 72% | 71% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +6% |
| Bournemouth win | 10% | 9% | 10.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 64' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 67' | ⚽ | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 579.00 | 1948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1820.73 | 1530.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.65 | 27.74 |
| eye test v1 | 2.08 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| league points | 50.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 26.66 |
| state index | 1.64 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 141.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |