← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 63% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.30 | fair |
| Swansea win | 14% | 23% | 7.10 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Swansea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mohamed Elneny · Arsenal |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 69' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 86' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 60.00 | 7792.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1488.33 | 1732.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.45 | -7.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 20.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.16 | 26.72 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 264.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |