← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 75% | 57% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 34% | 5.87 | value: +97% ⚠ |
| Swansea win | 8% | 9% | 11.68 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joël Matip · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 52.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1472.14 | 1783.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.77 | 27.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 17.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 25.31 |
| state index | -0.52 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 209.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |